Archive for February, 2012|Monthly archive page

Charts, 2012 – Week 9

In Charts on February 26, 2012 at 2:29 pm

A collection of weekly charts that I am looking at in advance of the 9th week of 2012.

Peter Brandt:   “Chart patterns in the 12 to 16 week zone are quite reliable, while patterns of lesser duration tend to fail much more frequently.”







Five more charts under the fold including USDJPY, AUDCAD, USDCAD, Silver XAGUSD and Gold XAUUSD (click chart title)

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Charts, 2012 – Week 8

In Charts on February 18, 2012 at 7:38 pm

Weekly charts for the 8th week of 2012:





…6 more charts under the fold…

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Midweek Dailies

In Charts, Market Commentary on February 15, 2012 at 10:30 pm

Some daily charts for your midweek viewing pleasure:

1. Silver XAGUSD

rectangle breakout will be profound


Another rectangle breakout to watch


Price rolling over would fit daily channel nicely


descending triangle right at potential breakout state. does price look comfy below parity?


Charts, 2012 – Week 7

In Charts on February 12, 2012 at 6:02 pm

Some weekly charts for the seventh week of 2012:


GBPUSD I'm still feeling bullish here, but a little reluctantly


AUDUSD This first chart looks bullish or neutral to me but I am watching for some bearish behaviour

AUDUSD This second chart looks more bearish


GBPCAD circa 100 weeks in this range. Coiling in the middle?


USDCAD Might be sticky around parity, but watching closely

…Click post title for more…

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Mistakes Were Made – Jan 2012

In Mistakes Were Made on February 9, 2012 at 8:37 pm

I intend to write a post every month called “Mistakes Were Made” where I examine the previous month’s trades.

In January 2012 I lost 1.5% of trading capital.  Mistakes (unforced errors) included:

1. Overtrading.  

I made over 200 trades during the month (many/most of which were small, being about 20% of normal trade size).  Some of these were anticipatory trades in an attempt to get into a move early; others were trades that I followed others into after quickly researching but which were not within my core competence.  With such a large volume of trades (for me), it was difficult/impossible for me to closely monitor each one and to have clear TP targets and effective stop management.  To correct this, I need to wait for patterns to prove themselves and wait for the best entries.  I need to be better about identifying profit targets within the same timeframe that the trade was identified and to diligently manage stops and profit taking for every trade.

My average profit on profitable trades was generally 50-80 pips (including a couple over 300 pips) and my average loss on losing trades was generally 20-40 pips.  I am broadly pleased with this outcome and shows I cut losses more quickly than profits.  My average trade duration was 1-2 days which is lower than I expected.  My win ratio was about 30-35% which is lower than I would prefer but works if average profitability on profitable trades improved slightly.  For such a low win ratio and so much trading, the limited loss of capital isn’t a bad outcome; but it should have been an equity positive month.

2. Inconsistent journaling/record keeping.  

Since I took so many trades, I didn’t journal everything which makes it difficult or impossible to learn from mistakes and capitalise on successes.  I excused myself from proper real time record keeping on the small trades which I will cease.

3. Deviations from trading plan.

I took some random trades that would have been clearly outside of a trading plan and wouldn’t have been taken if I was reviewing a trading plan every day or before each trade. My formal written trading plan is a little out of date and I need to update it so that I am more consistent about using it as a tool.

Feel free to leave comments or suggestions.

Charts, 2012 – Week 6

In Charts on February 5, 2012 at 8:54 pm

Some weekly charts (one monthly) for the sixth week of 2012:


IF GBPUSD can get above last weeks high, it has a lot of room to run.

2. This is the monthly AUDCAD

AUDCAD interesting long if it stays within triangle, and especially interesting on a break below.


EURGPB breakout has been successful, but currently sitting at support and lower part of channel. I'll probably stand aside this week.


EURUSD not really speaking to me on the weekly


USDCAD also not speaking to me on the weekly, especially right around this 1.0000 level


XAGUSD beginning to look very interesting on the short side

Best Dressed Charts in January

In Best Dressed, Charts on February 4, 2012 at 4:15 pm

My two favo(u)rite charts for the month of January were:

1. EURUSD diamond reversal

EURUSD Diamond Reversal anticipating 400 point move from 18 Jan to 27 Jan

2. Silver (XAGUSD) bullish flags

Silver XAGUSD - four consecutive bullish flags anticipating move from 28 to 34 between 3 Jan and 30 Jan